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Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Jeel — Division 1 2018

Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
FT
5 – 1
Al Jeel
Al Jeel
9/20/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 38Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC48%
×Draw27%
Al Jeel25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.43
Al Jeel
0.94

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 59 away

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.60
Al Jeel
0.95

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.93
Al Jeel
1.25

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par
Al Jeel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Al Jeel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
75%
Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Jeel
73%
Draw or Al Jeel
52%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
24%
Al Jeel wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
76%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
42%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
17%
Al Jeel 1+ goals
61%
Al Jeel 2+ goals
24%
Al Jeel 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
66%
Al Jeel (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.93 · 72 matches

Al Jeel away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.60 + Al Jeel defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Jeel attack 0.95 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
48%
level
27%
Al Jeel scores more
25%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al-Qadisiyah FC 5–1 Al Jeel

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Jeel 5-1 in Division 1 on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.