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Al Jeel vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Division 1 2018

Al Jeel
Al Jeel
FT
1 – 0
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
9/15/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 2Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Jeel27%
×Draw28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jeel
0.96
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.33

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Jeel
1.00
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.24

allows per match

Al Jeel
1.42
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.92

finishing

Al Jeel+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jeel ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Jeel or draw
55%
Al Jeel or Al-Qadisiyah FC
72%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
73%

Winning margin

Al Jeel wins by 2+
10%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Jeel 1+ goals
62%
Al Jeel 2+ goals
25%
Al Jeel 3+ goals
7%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
74%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
38%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Jeel (draw refunded)
37%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jeel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 60 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jeel attack 1.00 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.24 + Al Jeel defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Jeel scores more
27%
level
28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
45%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Jeel 1–0 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al Jeel beat Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-0 in Division 1 on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Al-Hasa.