Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid vs Al Dahra Tripoli FC — Premier League 2019

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1/16/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid36%
×Draw35%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.86
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
0.74

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.50
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
0.78

allows per match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.70
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.22

finishing

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid+0.00on par
Al Dahra Tripoli FC+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid ↓

Al Dahra Tripoli FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid or draw
71%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid or Al Dahra Tripoli FC
65%
Draw or Al Dahra Tripoli FC
64%

Winning margin

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid wins by 2+
12%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 1+ goals
58%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 2+ goals
21%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 3+ goals
6%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1+ goals
52%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2+ goals
17%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid (draw refunded)
55%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Al Dahra Tripoli FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid attack 0.50 + Al Dahra Tripoli FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.86

Al Dahra Tripoli FC attack 0.78 + Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid scores more
36%
level
35%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC scores more
29%

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid vs Al Dahra Tripoli FC

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid beat Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1-0 in Premier League on January 16, 2026.