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Al Dahra Tripoli FC vs Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid — Premier League 2019

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
Al Dahra Tripoli FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
3/14/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group A - 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al Dahra Tripoli FC46%
×Draw24%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.66
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
1.27

Al Dahra Tripoli FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.44
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
0.88

allows per match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC
1.67
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
1.88

finishing

Al Dahra Tripoli FC+0.00on par
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Dahra Tripoli FC ↓

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Dahra Tripoli FC or draw
71%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC or Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
76%
Draw or Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid
54%

Winning margin

Al Dahra Tripoli FC wins by 2+
24%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 1+ goals
81%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2+ goals
49%
Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3+ goals
23%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 1+ goals
72%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 2+ goals
36%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Dahra Tripoli FC (draw refunded)
61%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Dahra Tripoli FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Dahra Tripoli FC attack 1.44 + Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.66

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid attack 0.88 + Al Dahra Tripoli FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Dahra Tripoli FC scores more
46%
level
24%
Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid scores more
29%

Al Dahra Tripoli FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Dahra Tripoli FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Dahra Tripoli FC 2 – 3 Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid

Al Qadisiyah Bani Walid beat Al Dahra Tripoli FC 3-2 in Premier League on March 14, 2026.