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Al Okhdood vs Al-Ittihad FC — Pro League 2018

Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
9/14/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 6Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Okhdood25%
×Draw23%
Al-Ittihad FC52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Okhdood
1.16
Al-Ittihad FC
1.78

Al-Ittihad FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al Okhdood
1.06
Al-Ittihad FC
1.72

allows per match

Al Okhdood
1.84
Al-Ittihad FC
1.25

finishing

Al Okhdood+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Okhdood ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Okhdood or draw
48%
Al Okhdood or Al-Ittihad FC
77%
Draw or Al-Ittihad FC
75%

Winning margin

Al Okhdood wins by 2+
10%
Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Al Okhdood 1+ goals
69%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
32%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
11%
Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
83%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
53%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
32%
Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Okhdood at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Okhdood attack 1.06 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.72 + Al Okhdood defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Okhdood scores more
25%
level
23%
Al-Ittihad FC scores more
52%

Al-Ittihad FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al Okhdood 0–1 Al-Ittihad FC

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Okhdood 1-0 in Pro League on September 14, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Najran.