Al-Ittihad FC 2–1 Al Okhdood: Result & Stats

Al-Ittihad FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Al Okhdood

N. Kante 43'

H. Aouar 12'

B. Ince 59'

1/26/2026

Pro League · Round 18King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC56%

×Draw22%

Al Okhdood22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad FCExpected goals in this matchAl Okhdood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.15

Al-Ittihad FC

1.94

Al Okhdood

1.15

Al-Ittihad FC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.96

creates per match

0.50

1.79

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.96

Al Okhdood

0.50

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.79

Al Okhdood

1.92

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.04on par

Al Okhdood-0.17scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Al Okhdood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw

78%

Al-Ittihad FC or Al Okhdood

78%

Draw or Al Okhdood

44%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

32%

Al Okhdood wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

86%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

58%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

30%

Al Okhdood 1+ goals

68%

Al Okhdood 2+ goals

32%

Al Okhdood 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

71%

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 5 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.92 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.96 + Al Okhdood defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.94

Al Okhdood attack 0.50 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

56%

level

22%

Al Okhdood scores more

22%

Al-Ittihad FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Pereira

Al-Ittihad FC · D

8.2

Match Events

12'

H. Aouar↳ N. Kante

14'

Naif Assery

43'

N. Kante

46'

G. Hawsawi← S. Al Rubaie

59'

B. Ince↳ C. Bassogog

64'

Ghassan Hawsawi

69'

A. Al Julaydan← M. Al Shanqiti

69'

A. Al Bishi← A. Al Ghamdi

79'

S. Al Harthi← C. Bassogog

79'

M. Borrell← J. Pedroza

79'

A. Al Hatila← B. Ince

87'

S. Al Shehri← M. Diaby

87'

M. Al Jahif← S. Al Abbas

88'

H. Al Ghamdi← H. Aouar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-IttihadAl

Overview

72%Possession28%

18Total Shots6

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.39

10Corners0

15Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots6

9On Target2

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

10Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

72%Possession28%

610Total Passes244

556Accurate Passes186

91%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1