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Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood — Pro League 2018

Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Okhdood
Al Okhdood
3/8/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 23Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC53%
×Draw22%
Al Okhdood25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ittihad FC
1.96
Al Okhdood
1.27

Al-Ittihad FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.96
Al Okhdood
0.74

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC
1.79
Al Okhdood
1.95

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.04on par
Al Okhdood-0.24scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Al Okhdood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw
75%
Al-Ittihad FC or Al Okhdood
78%
Draw or Al Okhdood
47%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
31%
Al Okhdood wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
86%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
58%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
31%
Al Okhdood 1+ goals
72%
Al Okhdood 2+ goals
36%
Al Okhdood 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
68%
Al Okhdood (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 5 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.95 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.96 + Al Okhdood defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.96

Al Okhdood attack 0.74 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more
53%
level
22%
Al Okhdood scores more
25%

Al-Ittihad FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Okhdood

Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Okhdood 2-1 in Pro League on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium in Jeddah.