Al Okhdood 1–2 Al-Fayha: Result & Stats

Al Okhdood

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Fayha

1/16/2025

Pro League · Round 15Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Okhdood36%

×Draw26%

Al-Fayha39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al OkhdoodExpected goals in this matchAl-Fayha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.40

Al Okhdood

1.34

Al-Fayha

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

1.06

creates per match

0.96

1.84

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Al Okhdood

1.06

Al-Fayha

0.96

allows per match

Al Okhdood

1.84

Al-Fayha

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Okhdood ↓

Al-Fayha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Okhdood or draw

61%

Al Okhdood or Al-Fayha

74%

Draw or Al-Fayha

64%

Winning margin

Al Okhdood wins by 2+

16%

Al-Fayha wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Al Okhdood 1+ goals

74%

Al Okhdood 2+ goals

39%

Al Okhdood 3+ goals

15%

Al-Fayha 1+ goals

75%

Al-Fayha 2+ goals

41%

Al-Fayha 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)

48%

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Okhdood at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Okhdood attack 1.06 + Al-Fayha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al-Fayha attack 0.96 + Al Okhdood defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Okhdood scores more

36%

level

26%

Al-Fayha scores more

39%

Al-Fayha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff