Al-Fayha 2–0 Al Okhdood: Result & Stats

Al-Fayha

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Okhdood

F. Sakala 90+2'

R. López 87'

5/17/2025

Pro League · Round 32Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Fayha46%

×Draw27%

Al Okhdood27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FayhaExpected goals in this matchAl Okhdood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.99

Al-Fayha

1.40

Al Okhdood

0.99

Al-Fayha creates 41% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 51 away

1.14

creates per match

0.76

1.23

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Al-Fayha

1.14

Al Okhdood

0.76

allows per match

Al-Fayha

1.23

Al Okhdood

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Al Okhdood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw

73%

Al-Fayha or Al Okhdood

73%

Draw or Al Okhdood

54%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+

22%

Al Okhdood wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals

75%

Al-Fayha 2+ goals

41%

Al-Fayha 3+ goals

17%

Al Okhdood 1+ goals

63%

Al Okhdood 2+ goals

26%

Al Okhdood 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)

64%

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 1.14 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + Al-Fayha defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Fayha scores more

46%

level

27%

Al Okhdood scores more

27%

Al-Fayha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

F. Sakala

Al-Fayha · M

8.2

Match Events

57'

Saeed Al-Rabiei

70'

Mokher Al-Rashidi

82'

Yaseen Al Zubaidi← C. Bassogog

82'

Saleh Al Abbas← O. Barry

85'

Sattam Al Ruqi← Khalid Kaabi

87'

R. López↳ Sattam Al Ruqi

90+6'

Malek Al Abadalmanam← G. Cimirot

90+3'

Mansor Al Beshe← Pozuelo

90+6'

Faris Abdi← R. López

90+6'

Nawaf Al Harthi← F. Sakala

90+1'

Abdulaziz Al Hatila← Awadh Khamis

90+2'

F. Sakala↳ O. Mosquera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-FayhaAl

Overview

66%Possession34%

9Total Shots6

5Corners3

17Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots6

6On Target1

1Off Target5

2Blocked0

7Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

490Total Passes241

439Accurate Passes181

90%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2