Al Nejmeh 1–2 Al Arabi: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Nejmeh

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Al Arabi

Khalil Bader 45+4'

H. Khaba 71'

Ali Khalaf 33'

12/12/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Jaber Al-Ahmad International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Nejmeh21%

×Draw24%

Al Arabi55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al NejmehExpected goals in this matchAl Arabi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.75

Al Nejmeh

0.98

Al Arabi

1.75

Al Arabi creates 79% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

0.57

creates per match

1.80

1.71

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Al Nejmeh

0.57

Al Arabi

1.80

allows per match

Al Nejmeh

1.71

Al Arabi

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Al Arabi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Al Arabi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw

45%

Al Nejmeh or Al Arabi

76%

Draw or Al Arabi

79%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+

7%

Al Arabi wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals

62%

Al Nejmeh 2+ goals

26%

Al Nejmeh 3+ goals

8%

Al Arabi 1+ goals

83%

Al Arabi 2+ goals

52%

Al Arabi 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)

28%

Al Arabi (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Al Arabi away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 0.57 + Al Arabi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.98

Al Arabi attack 1.80 + Al Nejmeh defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more

21%

level

24%

Al Arabi scores more

55%

Al Arabi at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

W. Sabbar

Al Arabi · M

8.3

Match Events

33'

Ali Khalaf↳ W. Sabbar

43'

Hasan Al Anezi

45+4'

Khalil Bader

46'

Abdulrahman Al Dhaferi← Hussain Ashkanani

65'

Gilson Costa

65'

Hasan Mhana← José Embaló

65'

Youssef Majed← A. Iwuala

65'

Bandar Al Salama← Ali Khalaf

66'

Hasan Korani← Mahdi Al Zain

71'

H. Khaba↳ Bandar Al Salama

75'

Bilal Najdi← Gilson Costa

82'

Mohammad Markabawi← Khalil Bader

82'

Said Awada← Mohammad Chaaban

84'

Abdulrahman Al Sharhan← Nayef Al Shammari

84'

Bader Al Mutairi← Hasan Al Enezi

90'

Abdulrahman Al-Dhaferi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots9

7Corners4

23Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots9

6On Target5

2Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

373Total Passes492

281Accurate Passes408

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2