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Al Arabi vs Al Nejmeh — AFC Cup 2018

Al Arabi
Al Arabi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
10/2/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Kuwait Sporting Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Arabi46%
×Draw27%
Al Nejmeh27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi
1.38
Al Nejmeh
1.00

Al Arabi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Arabi
0.50
Al Nejmeh
1.00

allows per match

Al Arabi
1.00
Al Nejmeh
2.25

finishing

Al Arabi+0.00on par
Al Nejmeh+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi ↓

Al Nejmeh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Arabi or draw
73%
Al Arabi or Al Nejmeh
73%
Draw or Al Nejmeh
54%

Winning margin

Al Arabi wins by 2+
22%
Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Arabi 1+ goals
75%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
40%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
16%
Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
63%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
26%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi (draw refunded)
63%
Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Al Nejmeh away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi attack 0.50 + Al Nejmeh defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Nejmeh attack 1.00 + Al Arabi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Arabi scores more
46%
level
27%
Al Nejmeh scores more
27%

Al Arabi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Arabi vs Al Nejmeh

Al Arabi and Al Nejmeh drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Kuwait Sporting Club Stadium in Kuwait City.