Al-Nassr 1–1 Al-Duhail SC: Result & Stats

Al-Nassr

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Duhail SC

3/16/2016

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3King Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Al-Nassr52%

×Draw22%

Al-Duhail SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NassrExpected goals in this matchAl-Duhail SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.33

Al-Nassr

1.97

Al-Duhail SC

1.33

Al-Nassr creates 48% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

2.21

creates per match

1.62

1.04

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Al-Nassr

2.21

Al-Duhail SC

1.62

allows per match

Al-Nassr

1.04

Al-Duhail SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al-Duhail SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw

74%

Al-Nassr or Al-Duhail SC

78%

Draw or Al-Duhail SC

48%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

30%

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

86%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

58%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

31%

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

74%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

38%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

67%

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

Al-Duhail SC away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.21 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.97

Al-Duhail SC attack 1.62 + Al-Nassr defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al-Nassr scores more

52%

level

22%

Al-Duhail SC scores more

26%

Al-Nassr at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff