Al-Duhail SC 4–0 Al-Nassr: Result & Stats

Al-Duhail SC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Nassr

4/5/2016

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Abdullah bin Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Al-Duhail SC41%

×Draw24%

Al-Nassr35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Duhail SCExpected goals in this matchAl-Nassr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.44

Al-Duhail SC

1.58

Al-Nassr

1.44

Al-Duhail SC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

2.21

creates per match

1.46

1.41

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Al-Duhail SC

2.21

Al-Nassr

1.46

allows per match

Al-Duhail SC

1.41

Al-Nassr

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Duhail SC+0.00on par

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Duhail SC ↓

Al-Nassr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Duhail SC or draw

65%

Al-Duhail SC or Al-Nassr

76%

Draw or Al-Nassr

59%

Winning margin

Al-Duhail SC wins by 2+

20%

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Al-Duhail SC 1+ goals

79%

Al-Duhail SC 2+ goals

47%

Al-Duhail SC 3+ goals

21%

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

76%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

42%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al-Duhail SC (draw refunded)

54%

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Duhail SC at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Duhail SC attack 2.21 + Al-Nassr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al-Nassr attack 1.46 + Al-Duhail SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al-Duhail SC scores more

41%

level

24%

Al-Nassr scores more

35%

Al-Duhail SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al-Duhail SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff