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Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Pro League 2018

Al Najma
Al Najma
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1/25/2026Pro LeaguePro League · Round 18King Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Najma28%
×Draw23%
Al-Qadisiyah FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najma
1.36
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.85

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 64 away

creates per match

Al Najma
1.24
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.58

allows per match

Al Najma
2.12
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.48

finishing

Al Najma+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najma ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al Najma or draw
51%
Al Najma or Al-Qadisiyah FC
77%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
72%

Winning margin

Al Najma wins by 2+
12%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Al Najma 1+ goals
74%
Al Najma 2+ goals
39%
Al Najma 3+ goals
16%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
84%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
55%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Al Najma (draw refunded)
37%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najma at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.48 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najma attack 1.24 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.58 + Al Najma defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al Najma scores more
28%
level
23%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
49%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Najma 3-1 in Pro League on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Buraidah.