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Al Najma vs Al-Qadisiyah FC — Division 1 2018

Al Najma
Al Najma
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
12/25/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 15Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Najma37%
×Draw28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najma
1.18
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 72 away

creates per match

Al Najma
1.44
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.24

allows per match

Al Najma
1.03
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0.92

finishing

Al Najma+0.00on par
Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najma ↓

Al-Qadisiyah FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Najma or draw
65%
Al Najma or Al-Qadisiyah FC
72%
Draw or Al-Qadisiyah FC
63%

Winning margin

Al Najma wins by 2+
16%
Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Najma 1+ goals
69%
Al Najma 2+ goals
33%
Al Najma 3+ goals
12%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
68%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
32%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Najma (draw refunded)
51%
Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najma at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.92 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najma attack 1.44 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.24 + Al Najma defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Najma scores more
37%
level
28%
Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
35%

Al Najma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Najma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Najma 0–3 Al-Qadisiyah FC

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Najma 3-0 in Division 1 on December 25, 2023.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.