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Al Najma vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Al Najma
Al Najma
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
10/2/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 7Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Najma47%
×Draw26%
Al Arabi SC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najma
1.52
Al Arabi SC
1.10

Al Najma creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Najma
1.44
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Al Najma
1.03
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Al Najma+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najma ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Najma or draw
73%
Al Najma or Al Arabi SC
74%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
53%

Winning margin

Al Najma wins by 2+
24%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Najma 1+ goals
78%
Al Najma 2+ goals
45%
Al Najma 3+ goals
20%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
67%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
30%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Najma (draw refunded)
63%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najma at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najma attack 1.44 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Al Najma defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Najma scores more
47%
level
26%
Al Arabi SC scores more
27%

Al Najma at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Najma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Najma 2–1 Al Arabi SC

Al Najma beat Al Arabi SC 2-1 in Division 1 on October 2, 2023.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.