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Al Arabi SC vs Al Najma — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Al Najma
Al Najma
3/2/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 24Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Arabi SC37%
×Draw24%
Al Najma39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi SC
1.50
Al Najma
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Arabi SC
1.51
Al Najma
1.65

allows per match

Al Arabi SC
1.44
Al Najma
1.50

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par
Al Najma+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Al Najma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw
61%
Al Arabi SC or Al Najma
76%
Draw or Al Najma
63%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
18%
Al Najma wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
78%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
44%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
19%
Al Najma 1+ goals
79%
Al Najma 2+ goals
45%
Al Najma 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
49%
Al Najma (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Al Najma away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Al Najma defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al Najma attack 1.65 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more
37%
level
24%
Al Najma scores more
39%

Al Najma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Najma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Arabi SC vs Al Najma

Al Najma beat Al Arabi SC 2-1 in Division 1 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.