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Al Najaf vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2020

Al Najaf
Al Najaf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Duhok
Duhok
1/26/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 13Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Najaf39%
×Draw29%
Duhok33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najaf
1.17
Duhok
1.05

Al Najaf creates 11% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al Najaf
1.17
Duhok
1.05

allows per match

Al Najaf
1.05
Duhok
1.16

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw
67%
Al Najaf or Duhok
71%
Draw or Duhok
61%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+
16%
Duhok wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals
69%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
33%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
11%
Duhok 1+ goals
65%
Duhok 2+ goals
28%
Duhok 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)
54%
Duhok (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.17 + Duhok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Duhok attack 1.05 + Al Najaf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Najaf scores more
39%
level
29%
Duhok scores more
33%

Al Najaf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Najaf 0 – 1 Duhok

Duhok beat Al Najaf 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 26, 2023.

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.