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Al Najaf vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2020

Al Najaf
Al Najaf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baghdad
Baghdad
1/5/2022Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 17Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al Najaf44%
×Draw28%
Baghdad28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najaf
1.31
Baghdad
0.98

Al Najaf creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 78 away

creates per match

Al Najaf
1.17
Baghdad
0.91

allows per match

Al Najaf
1.05
Baghdad
1.46

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw
72%
Al Najaf or Baghdad
72%
Draw or Baghdad
56%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+
20%
Baghdad wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals
73%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
38%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
14%
Baghdad 1+ goals
62%
Baghdad 2+ goals
26%
Baghdad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)
61%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.17 + Baghdad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Baghdad attack 0.91 + Al Najaf defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Najaf scores more
44%
level
28%
Baghdad scores more
28%

Al Najaf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Najaf vs Baghdad

Al Najaf beat Baghdad 1-0 in Iraqi League on January 5, 2022.

The match was played at Al Najaf Stadium in Najaf.