Al-Nahda 0–3 Abu Salim: Result & Stats

Al-Nahda

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Abu Salim

3/6/2025

Premier League · West - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Nahda13%

×Draw21%

Abu Salim66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NahdaExpected goals in this matchAbu Salim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.97

Al-Nahda

0.73

Abu Salim

1.97

Abu Salim creates 170% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 61 away

0.38

creates per match

0.82

3.13

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Al-Nahda

0.38

Abu Salim

0.82

allows per match

Al-Nahda

3.13

Abu Salim

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Abu Salim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nahda ↓

Abu Salim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Al-Nahda or draw

34%

Al-Nahda or Abu Salim

79%

Draw or Abu Salim

87%

Winning margin

Al-Nahda wins by 2+

4%

Abu Salim wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Al-Nahda 1+ goals

52%

Al-Nahda 2+ goals

17%

Al-Nahda 3+ goals

4%

Abu Salim 1+ goals

86%

Abu Salim 2+ goals

58%

Abu Salim 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Al-Nahda (draw refunded)

16%

Abu Salim (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nahda at home — creates 0.38, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

Abu Salim away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nahda attack 0.38 + Abu Salim defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.73

Abu Salim attack 0.82 + Al-Nahda defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al-Nahda scores more

13%

level

21%

Abu Salim scores more

66%

Abu Salim at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff