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Abu Salim vs Al-Nahda — Premier League 2019

Abu Salim
Abu Salim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Nahda
Al-Nahda
1/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · West - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Abu Salim66%
×Draw21%
Al-Nahda13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abu Salim
1.91
Al-Nahda
0.70

Abu Salim creates 173% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 8 away

creates per match

Abu Salim
0.93
Al-Nahda
0.25

allows per match

Abu Salim
1.16
Al-Nahda
2.88

finishing

Abu Salim+0.00on par
Al-Nahda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abu Salim ↓

Al-Nahda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Abu Salim or draw
87%
Abu Salim or Al-Nahda
79%
Draw or Al-Nahda
34%

Winning margin

Abu Salim wins by 2+
40%
Al-Nahda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Abu Salim 1+ goals
85%
Abu Salim 2+ goals
57%
Abu Salim 3+ goals
30%
Al-Nahda 1+ goals
50%
Al-Nahda 2+ goals
16%
Al-Nahda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Abu Salim (draw refunded)
84%
Al-Nahda (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abu Salim at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Al-Nahda away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abu Salim attack 0.93 + Al-Nahda defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 1.91

Al-Nahda attack 0.25 + Abu Salim defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Abu Salim scores more
66%
level
21%
Al-Nahda scores more
13%

Abu Salim at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Abu Salim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abu Salim vs Al-Nahda

Abu Salim beat Al-Nahda 1-0 in Premier League on January 9, 2025.