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Al Minaa Basra vs Al Diwaniya — Iraqi League 2020

Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al Diwaniya
Al Diwaniya
2/4/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 17Al Faihaa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Minaa Basra52%
×Draw26%
Al Diwaniya22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Minaa Basra
1.52
Al Diwaniya
0.88

Al Minaa Basra creates 73% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 52 away

creates per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.16
Al Diwaniya
0.58

allows per match

Al Minaa Basra
1.17
Al Diwaniya
1.88

finishing

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par
Al Diwaniya+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Minaa Basra ↓

Al Diwaniya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Minaa Basra or draw
78%
Al Minaa Basra or Al Diwaniya
74%
Draw or Al Diwaniya
48%

Winning margin

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
27%
Al Diwaniya wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
78%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
45%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
20%
Al Diwaniya 1+ goals
59%
Al Diwaniya 2+ goals
22%
Al Diwaniya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
71%
Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Minaa Basra at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Al Diwaniya away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Minaa Basra attack 1.16 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al Diwaniya attack 0.58 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Minaa Basra scores more
52%
level
26%
Al Diwaniya scores more
22%

Al Minaa Basra at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Minaa Basra vs Al Diwaniya

Al Minaa Basra beat Al Diwaniya 2-0 in Iraqi League on February 4, 2021.

The match was played at Al Faihaa Stadium in Basra.