Al Diwaniya 1–0 Al Minaa Basra: Result & Stats

Al Diwaniya

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Minaa Basra

7/8/2021

Iraqi League · Round 36Al Diwaniya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Diwaniya34%

×Draw30%

Al Minaa Basra36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al DiwaniyaExpected goals in this matchAl Minaa Basra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.08

Al Diwaniya

1.05

Al Minaa Basra

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 93 away

0.71

creates per match

0.86

1.31

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Al Diwaniya

0.71

Al Minaa Basra

0.86

allows per match

Al Diwaniya

1.31

Al Minaa Basra

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Diwaniya+0.00on par

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Diwaniya ↓

Al Minaa Basra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Diwaniya or draw

64%

Al Diwaniya or Al Minaa Basra

70%

Draw or Al Minaa Basra

66%

Winning margin

Al Diwaniya wins by 2+

13%

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Diwaniya 1+ goals

65%

Al Diwaniya 2+ goals

28%

Al Diwaniya 3+ goals

9%

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

66%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

29%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)

49%

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Diwaniya at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Diwaniya attack 0.71 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Diwaniya scores more

34%

level

30%

Al Minaa Basra scores more

36%

Al Minaa Basra at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Minaa Basra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff