Al-Merreikh II 3–1 Al Hilal Karima: Result & Stats

Al-Merreikh II

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al Hilal Karima

1/15/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 3Al Merreikh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al-Merreikh II68%

×Draw19%

Al Hilal Karima12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Merreikh IIExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Karima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.74

Al-Merreikh II

2.08

Al Hilal Karima

0.74

Al-Merreikh II creates 181% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.56

creates per match

0.80

0.67

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Al-Merreikh II

2.56

Al Hilal Karima

0.80

allows per match

Al-Merreikh II

0.67

Al Hilal Karima

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par

Al Hilal Karima+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Merreikh II ↓

Al Hilal Karima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al-Merreikh II or draw

88%

Al-Merreikh II or Al Hilal Karima

81%

Draw or Al Hilal Karima

32%

Winning margin

Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+

43%

Al Hilal Karima wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals

87%

Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals

61%

Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals

34%

Al Hilal Karima 1+ goals

52%

Al Hilal Karima 2+ goals

17%

Al Hilal Karima 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)

85%

Al Hilal Karima (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Merreikh II at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al Hilal Karima away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Merreikh II attack 2.56 + Al Hilal Karima defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Al Hilal Karima attack 0.80 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Al-Merreikh II scores more

68%

level

19%

Al Hilal Karima scores more

12%

Al-Merreikh II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff