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Al Hilal Karima vs Al-Merreikh II — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Karima
Al Hilal Karima
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Merreikh II
Al-Merreikh II
2/3/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Hilal Karima22%
×Draw24%
Al-Merreikh II54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Karima
1.01
Al-Merreikh II
1.71

Al-Merreikh II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Karima
1.40
Al-Merreikh II
1.63

allows per match

Al Hilal Karima
1.80
Al-Merreikh II
0.63

finishing

Al Hilal Karima+0.00on par
Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Karima ↓

Al-Merreikh II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Hilal Karima or draw
46%
Al Hilal Karima or Al-Merreikh II
76%
Draw or Al-Merreikh II
78%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Karima wins by 2+
8%
Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Al Hilal Karima 1+ goals
64%
Al Hilal Karima 2+ goals
27%
Al Hilal Karima 3+ goals
8%
Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals
82%
Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals
51%
Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Karima (draw refunded)
29%
Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Karima at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Al-Merreikh II away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Karima attack 1.40 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.01

Al-Merreikh II attack 1.63 + Al Hilal Karima defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Hilal Karima scores more
22%
level
24%
Al-Merreikh II scores more
54%

Al-Merreikh II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Karima 1–3 Al-Merreikh II

Al-Merreikh II beat Al Hilal Karima 3-1 in Sudani Premier League on February 3, 2026.