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Al-Merreikh II vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Merreikh II
Al-Merreikh II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
1/30/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7Al Merreikh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Merreikh II62%
×Draw24%
Al-Ahly Merowe14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Merreikh II
1.66
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.65

Al-Merreikh II creates 155% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al-Merreikh II
2.56
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.63

allows per match

Al-Merreikh II
0.67
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.75

finishing

Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Merreikh II ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al-Merreikh II or draw
86%
Al-Merreikh II or Al-Ahly Merowe
76%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
38%

Winning margin

Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+
35%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals
81%
Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals
49%
Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals
23%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
48%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
14%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)
81%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Merreikh II at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Merreikh II attack 2.56 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.63 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al-Merreikh II scores more
62%
level
24%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
14%

Al-Merreikh II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al-Merreikh II 0–0 Al-Ahly Merowe

Al-Merreikh II and Al-Ahly Merowe drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 30, 2026.

The match was played at Al Merreikh Stadium in Omdurman.