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Al-Ahly Merowe vs Al-Merreikh II — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Merreikh II
Al-Merreikh II
1/11/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Al-Ahly Merowe18%
×Draw29%
Al-Merreikh II53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.64
Al-Merreikh II
1.31

Al-Merreikh II creates 105% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
0.64
Al-Merreikh II
1.63

allows per match

Al-Ahly Merowe
1.00
Al-Merreikh II
0.63

finishing

Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par
Al-Merreikh II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahly Merowe ↓

Al-Merreikh II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al-Ahly Merowe or draw
47%
Al-Ahly Merowe or Al-Merreikh II
71%
Draw or Al-Merreikh II
82%

Winning margin

Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
5%
Al-Merreikh II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
47%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
14%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
3%
Al-Merreikh II 1+ goals
73%
Al-Merreikh II 2+ goals
38%
Al-Merreikh II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
26%
Al-Merreikh II (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahly Merowe at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Al-Merreikh II away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.64 + Al-Merreikh II defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.64

Al-Merreikh II attack 1.63 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
18%
level
29%
Al-Merreikh II scores more
53%

Al-Merreikh II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al-Merreikh II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al-Ahly Merowe 1–2 Al-Merreikh II

Al-Merreikh II beat Al-Ahly Merowe 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 11, 2026.