Al-Mergheni 1–1 Al Hilal Al Manaqil: Result & Stats

Al-Mergheni

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al Hilal Al Manaqil

1/18/2025

Sudani Premier League · Round 3Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al-Mergheni30%

×Draw33%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-MergheniExpected goals in this matchAl Hilal Al Manaqil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.96

Al-Mergheni

0.83

Al Hilal Al Manaqil

0.96

Al Hilal Al Manaqil creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

0.92

creates per match

0.75

1.17

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Al-Mergheni

0.92

Al Hilal Al Manaqil

0.75

allows per match

Al-Mergheni

1.17

Al Hilal Al Manaqil

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Mergheni+0.00on par

Al Hilal Al Manaqil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Mergheni ↓

Al Hilal Al Manaqil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–116%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al-Mergheni or draw

63%

Al-Mergheni or Al Hilal Al Manaqil

67%

Draw or Al Hilal Al Manaqil

70%

Winning margin

Al-Mergheni wins by 2+

10%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al-Mergheni 1+ goals

56%

Al-Mergheni 2+ goals

20%

Al-Mergheni 3+ goals

5%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 1+ goals

62%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 2+ goals

25%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al-Mergheni (draw refunded)

45%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Mergheni at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Al Hilal Al Manaqil away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Mergheni attack 0.92 + Al Hilal Al Manaqil defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Al Hilal Al Manaqil attack 0.75 + Al-Mergheni defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al-Mergheni scores more

30%

level

33%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil scores more

37%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Hilal Al Manaqil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff