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Al Hilal Al Manaqil vs Al-Mergheni — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
Al Hilal Al Manaqil
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Mergheni
Al-Mergheni
2/10/2025Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8Stade Al-Merghani Kassala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Hilal Al Manaqil42%
×Draw29%
Al-Mergheni28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1.20
Al-Mergheni
0.93

Al Hilal Al Manaqil creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1.25
Al-Mergheni
0.85

allows per match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil
1.00
Al-Mergheni
1.15

finishing

Al Hilal Al Manaqil+0.00on par
Al-Mergheni+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hilal Al Manaqil ↓

Al-Mergheni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Hilal Al Manaqil or draw
72%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil or Al-Mergheni
71%
Draw or Al-Mergheni
58%

Winning margin

Al Hilal Al Manaqil wins by 2+
18%
Al-Mergheni wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Hilal Al Manaqil 1+ goals
70%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 2+ goals
34%
Al Hilal Al Manaqil 3+ goals
12%
Al-Mergheni 1+ goals
61%
Al-Mergheni 2+ goals
24%
Al-Mergheni 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Hilal Al Manaqil (draw refunded)
60%
Al-Mergheni (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hilal Al Manaqil at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Al-Mergheni away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hilal Al Manaqil attack 1.25 + Al-Mergheni defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Al-Mergheni attack 0.85 + Al Hilal Al Manaqil defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Hilal Al Manaqil scores more
42%
level
29%
Al-Mergheni scores more
28%

Al Hilal Al Manaqil at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Hilal Al Manaqil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Hilal Al Manaqil 0–0 Al-Mergheni

Al Hilal Al Manaqil and Al-Mergheni drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Al-Merghani Kassala in Kassala.