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Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha — Pro League 2018

Al Kholood
Al Kholood
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
A. Dieng 82'
Hammam Al Hammami 45+1'
5/21/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 33Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Al Kholood48%
×Draw27%
Al-Fayha24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kholood
1.40
Al-Fayha
0.91

Al Kholood creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Kholood
1.00
Al-Fayha
0.89

allows per match

Al Kholood
0.92
Al-Fayha
1.79

finishing

Al Kholood-0.43scores less
Al-Fayha+0.11scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kholood ↓

Al-Fayha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Kholood or draw
76%
Al Kholood or Al-Fayha
73%
Draw or Al-Fayha
52%

Winning margin

Al Kholood wins by 2+
23%
Al-Fayha wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Kholood 1+ goals
75%
Al Kholood 2+ goals
41%
Al Kholood 3+ goals
17%
Al-Fayha 1+ goals
60%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
23%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Kholood (draw refunded)
66%
Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kholood at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.92 · 7 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kholood attack 1.00 + Al-Fayha defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Al-Fayha attack 0.89 + Al Kholood defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Kholood scores more
48%
level
27%
Al-Fayha scores more
24%

Al Kholood at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Kholood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

96
K. N'DoramAl KholoodAl Kholood · M
7.9

Match Events

45+4'
Gabriel Vareta
45+1'
Hammam Al Hammami
61'
Mokher Al-Rashidi
68'
Malek Al Abadalmanam← Khalid Kaabi
68'
Faris Abdi← Makhir Al Rashidi
69'
Nawaf Al Harthi← G. Cimirot
80'
Sattam Al Ruqi← Mohammed Al Baqawi
82'
A. Dieng↳ J. Muleka
84'
Otabek Shukurov
85'
Mohammed Jahfali← Hammam Al Hammami
89'
Muhammad Sawan← Álex Collado
90+4'
Abdulhadi Al Harajin← Pozuelo

Possession

39%Al

Shots

15Al

Pass accuracy

49%Al

Statistics

AlAl-Fayha
Overview
39%Possession61%
15Total Shots9
3Corners6
9Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots9
9On Target3
4Off Target5
2Blocked1
9Inside Box7
6Outside Box2
Passing
39%Possession61%
296Total Passes462
244Accurate Passes394
82%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls15
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Al Kholood vs Al-Fayha

Al Kholood beat Al-Fayha 2-0 in Pro League on May 21, 2025.

Goals: Hammam Al Hammami (45+1'), A. Dieng (82').

Al-Fayha controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.