Al-Fayha 0–5 Al Kholood: Result & Stats

Al-Fayha

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Al Kholood

M. Maolida 84', 5'

H. Bahebri 65'

R. Enrique 44'

C. Smalling 38' (OG)

1/3/2026

Pro League · Round 13King Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Al-Fayha45%

×Draw25%

Al Kholood30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FayhaExpected goals in this matchAl Kholood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.21

Al-Fayha

1.54

Al Kholood

1.21

Al-Fayha creates 27% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.20

creates per match

1.46

0.96

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Al-Fayha

1.20

Al Kholood

1.46

allows per match

Al-Fayha

0.96

Al Kholood

1.89

+0.22scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.22scores more

Al Kholood+0.04on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Al Kholood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw

70%

Al-Fayha or Al Kholood

75%

Draw or Al Kholood

55%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+

23%

Al Kholood wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals

79%

Al-Fayha 2+ goals

45%

Al-Fayha 3+ goals

20%

Al Kholood 1+ goals

70%

Al Kholood 2+ goals

34%

Al Kholood 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)

60%

Al Kholood (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Al Kholood away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.89 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 1.20 + Al Kholood defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Kholood attack 1.46 + Al-Fayha defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Fayha scores more

45%

level

25%

Al Kholood scores more

30%

Al-Fayha at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Maolida

Al Kholood · M

9.9

Match Events

5'

M. Maolida

38'

C. SmallingOwn goal

44'

R. Enrique

46'

K. Al Rammah← A. Bamsaud

46'

D. Al Habeeb← M. Al Beshe

61'

Alfa SemedoCard upgrade

63'

65'

70'

75'

79'

M. Khalifah← R. Enrique

82'

82'

84'

85'

86'

M. Al Abdulmanam← Y. Benzia

86'

N. Al Harthi← Jason Remeseiro

86'

I. Barabaa← S. Pinas

86'

O. Abdulghani← A. Al Safari

86'

Guga← H. Bahebri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-FayhaAl

Overview

50%Possession50%

13Total Shots15

1.17Expected Goals (xG)1.04

4Corners6

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target6

7Off Target5

1Blocked4

8Inside Box11

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

391Total Passes401

327Accurate Passes328

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2