Al Kholood 1–2 Al Arabi SC: Result & Stats

Al Kholood

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Al Arabi SC

9/12/2022

Division 1 · Round 4Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Al Kholood48%

×Draw27%

Al Arabi SC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KholoodExpected goals in this matchAl Arabi SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.97

Al Kholood

1.43

Al Arabi SC

0.97

Al Kholood creates 47% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

1.26

creates per match

1.18

0.77

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Al Kholood

1.26

Al Arabi SC

1.18

allows per match

Al Kholood

0.77

Al Arabi SC

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Kholood+0.00on par

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kholood ↓

Al Arabi SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Kholood or draw

74%

Al Kholood or Al Arabi SC

73%

Draw or Al Arabi SC

52%

Winning margin

Al Kholood wins by 2+

23%

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Kholood 1+ goals

76%

Al Kholood 2+ goals

42%

Al Kholood 3+ goals

17%

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals

62%

Al Arabi SC 2+ goals

25%

Al Arabi SC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Kholood (draw refunded)

65%

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kholood at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.77 · 53 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kholood attack 1.26 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Al Kholood defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Kholood scores more

48%

level

27%

Al Arabi SC scores more

26%

Al Kholood at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Kholood will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff