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Al Arabi SC vs Al Kholood — Division 1 2018

Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Al Kholood
Al Kholood
2/14/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 21Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Al Arabi SC37%
×Draw27%
Al Kholood37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Arabi SC
1.29
Al Kholood
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

creates per match

Al Arabi SC
1.51
Al Kholood
1.15

allows per match

Al Arabi SC
1.44
Al Kholood
1.06

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par
Al Kholood+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Al Kholood →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw
63%
Al Arabi SC or Al Kholood
73%
Draw or Al Kholood
63%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
16%
Al Kholood wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
72%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
37%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
14%
Al Kholood 1+ goals
72%
Al Kholood 2+ goals
37%
Al Kholood 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
50%
Al Kholood (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Al Kholood away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Al Kholood defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Al Kholood attack 1.15 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more
37%
level
27%
Al Kholood scores more
37%

Al Arabi SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Arabi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Arabi SC vs Al Kholood

Al Arabi SC and Al Kholood drew 2-2 in Division 1 on February 14, 2023.

The match was played at Department of Education Stadium in Unaizah.