Al Khaleej Saihat 0–1 Al-Fateh: Result & Stats

Al Khaleej Saihat

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Fateh

12/29/2025

Pro League · Round 12Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat39%

×Draw25%

Al-Fateh37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Khaleej SaihatExpected goals in this matchAl-Fateh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.46

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.50

Al-Fateh

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 126 away

1.32

creates per match

1.33

1.59

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.32

Al-Fateh

1.33

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.59

Al-Fateh

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al-Fateh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw

63%

Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Fateh

75%

Draw or Al-Fateh

61%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

19%

Al-Fateh wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

78%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

44%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

19%

Al-Fateh 1+ goals

77%

Al-Fateh 2+ goals

43%

Al-Fateh 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

51%

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Al-Fateh away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.32 + Al-Fateh defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al-Fateh attack 1.33 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

39%

level

25%

Al-Fateh scores more

37%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff