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Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat — Pro League 2018

Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
4/24/2026Pro LeaguePro League · Round 29Al Fateh club stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al-Fateh44%
×Draw25%
Al Khaleej Saihat32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fateh
1.59
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.31

Al-Fateh creates 21% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 66 away

creates per match

Al-Fateh
1.59
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.11

allows per match

Al-Fateh
1.52
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.59

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par
Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw
68%
Al-Fateh or Al Khaleej Saihat
75%
Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat
56%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+
22%
Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals
80%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
47%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
21%
Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
73%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
38%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
58%
Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 126 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.59 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.59

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.11 + Al-Fateh defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al-Fateh scores more
44%
level
25%
Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
32%

Al-Fateh at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Fateh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Fateh vs Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Fateh beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 in Pro League on April 24, 2026.

The match was played at Al Fateh club stadium in Al-Hofuf.