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Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten — Division 1 2018

Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
FT
0 – 2
Al Baten
Al Baten
M. Al Dhafiri 87'
O. H. Al Aowda 80'
12/7/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 12Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Khaleej Saihat44%
×Draw27%
Al Baten29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.41
Al Baten
1.10

Al Khaleej Saihat creates 28% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 67 away

creates per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.20
Al Baten
1.13

allows per match

Al Khaleej Saihat
1.07
Al Baten
1.61

finishing

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par
Al Baten+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Khaleej Saihat ↓

Al Baten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Khaleej Saihat or draw
71%
Al Khaleej Saihat or Al Baten
73%
Draw or Al Baten
56%

Winning margin

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
21%
Al Baten wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
76%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
41%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
17%
Al Baten 1+ goals
67%
Al Baten 2+ goals
30%
Al Baten 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
60%
Al Baten (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Khaleej Saihat at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Al Baten away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.20 + Al Baten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Baten attack 1.13 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
44%
level
27%
Al Baten scores more
29%

Al Khaleej Saihat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Khaleej Saihat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
O. H. Al Aowda
87'
M. Al Dhafiri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Baten

Al Baten beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 in Division 1 on December 7, 2019.

Goals: O. H. Al Aowda (80'), M. Al Dhafiri (87').

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.