Al Baten 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat: Result & Stats

Al Baten

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Khaleej Saihat

1/27/2017

Pro League · Round 16Al-Batin Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Baten39%

×Draw26%

Al Khaleej Saihat35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al BatenExpected goals in this matchAl Khaleej Saihat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.33

Al Baten

1.41

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 67 away

1.23

creates per match

1.09

1.58

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Al Baten

1.23

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.09

allows per match

Al Baten

1.58

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Baten+0.00on par

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Baten ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Baten or draw

65%

Al Baten or Al Khaleej Saihat

74%

Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat

61%

Winning margin

Al Baten wins by 2+

18%

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Al Baten 1+ goals

76%

Al Baten 2+ goals

41%

Al Baten 3+ goals

17%

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

74%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

38%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Baten (draw refunded)

52%

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Baten at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.58 · 60 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Baten attack 1.23 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.09 + Al Baten defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Baten scores more

39%

level

26%

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

35%

Al Baten at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Baten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff