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Al-Karma vs Al Hudod — Iraqi League 2020

Al-Karma
Al-Karma
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Al Hudod
Al Hudod
10/4/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 3Al Ramadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Al-Karma48%
×Draw29%
Al Hudod23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Karma
1.27
Al Hudod
0.78

Al-Karma creates 63% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 78 away

creates per match

Al-Karma
1.21
Al Hudod
0.92

allows per match

Al-Karma
0.63
Al Hudod
1.33

finishing

Al-Karma+0.00on par
Al Hudod+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Karma ↓

Al Hudod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Karma or draw
77%
Al-Karma or Al Hudod
71%
Draw or Al Hudod
52%

Winning margin

Al-Karma wins by 2+
22%
Al Hudod wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Karma 1+ goals
72%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
36%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
14%
Al Hudod 1+ goals
54%
Al Hudod 2+ goals
18%
Al Hudod 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Karma (draw refunded)
68%
Al Hudod (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Karma at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.63 · 38 matches

Al Hudod away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Karma attack 1.21 + Al Hudod defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Al Hudod attack 0.92 + Al-Karma defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al-Karma scores more
48%
level
29%
Al Hudod scores more
23%

Al-Karma at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al-Karma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Karma 3–1 Al Hudod

Al-Karma beat Al Hudod 3-1 in Iraqi League on October 4, 2024.

The match was played at Al Ramadi Stadium in Ramadi.