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Al Hudod vs Al-Karma — Iraqi League 2020

Al Hudod
Al Hudod
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Karma
Al-Karma
3/9/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 23Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Al Hudod28%
×Draw28%
Al-Karma44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hudod
1.00
Al-Karma
1.33

Al-Karma creates 33% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 37 away

creates per match

Al Hudod
1.00
Al-Karma
1.27

allows per match

Al Hudod
1.40
Al-Karma
1.00

finishing

Al Hudod+0.00on par
Al-Karma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hudod ↓

Al-Karma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Hudod or draw
56%
Al Hudod or Al-Karma
72%
Draw or Al-Karma
72%

Winning margin

Al Hudod wins by 2+
10%
Al-Karma wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Hudod 1+ goals
63%
Al Hudod 2+ goals
26%
Al Hudod 3+ goals
8%
Al-Karma 1+ goals
74%
Al-Karma 2+ goals
38%
Al-Karma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Hudod (draw refunded)
39%
Al-Karma (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hudod at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 78 matches

Al-Karma away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hudod attack 1.00 + Al-Karma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Al-Karma attack 1.27 + Al Hudod defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Hudod scores more
28%
level
28%
Al-Karma scores more
44%

Al-Karma at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Karma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hudod vs Al-Karma

Al-Karma beat Al Hudod 3-0 in Iraqi League on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Baghdād.