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Al Karkh vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2025

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baghdad
Baghdad
Y. Hmoud 54', 30'
M. Abdel Amir 27' (pen)
5/11/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Al Karkh47%
×Draw25%
Baghdad28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.57
Baghdad
1.14

Al Karkh creates 38% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 32 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.26
Baghdad
0.97

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.30
Baghdad
1.88

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
72%
Al Karkh or Baghdad
75%
Draw or Baghdad
53%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
24%
Baghdad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
79%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
46%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
21%
Baghdad 1+ goals
68%
Baghdad 2+ goals
32%
Baghdad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
63%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.26 + Baghdad defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.57

Baghdad attack 0.97 + Al Karkh defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Karkh scores more
47%
level
25%
Baghdad scores more
28%

Al Karkh at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
M. Abdel AmirPenalty
30'
Y. Hmoud
54'
Y. Hmoud

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Karkh 2–1 Baghdad

Al Karkh beat Baghdad 2-1 in Iraqi League on May 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Abdel Amir (27' pen), Y. Hmoud (30', 54').