Al Karkh 2–1 Baghdad: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Al Karkh

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Baghdad

Jaafar Kathem 68'

Munaf Younus 24'

Farhan Shakur 87'

5/20/2022

Iraqi League · Round 32Al-Karkh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Al Karkh46%

×Draw26%

Baghdad27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KarkhExpected goals in this matchBaghdad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.06

Al Karkh

1.46

Baghdad

1.06

Al Karkh creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

1.15

creates per match

0.94

1.18

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Al Karkh

1.15

Baghdad

0.94

allows per match

Al Karkh

1.18

Baghdad

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par

Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Baghdad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw

73%

Al Karkh or Baghdad

74%

Draw or Baghdad

54%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+

23%

Baghdad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals

77%

Al Karkh 2+ goals

43%

Al Karkh 3+ goals

18%

Baghdad 1+ goals

65%

Baghdad 2+ goals

29%

Baghdad 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)

63%

Baghdad (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.18 · 34 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.15 + Baghdad defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Baghdad attack 0.94 + Al Karkh defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Karkh scores more

46%

level

26%

Baghdad scores more

27%

Al Karkh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Munaf Younus

68'

Jaafar Kathem

87'

Farhan Shakur

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff