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Al Karkh vs Al Kahrabaa — Iraqi League 2020

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
D. Talla 45'
Polegar 17'
Jaafar Kathem 7'
M. Shafiu 80'
D. Diémé 72'
Mahmoud Khalil 39'
6/18/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 33Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Al Karkh38%
×Draw29%
Al Kahrabaa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.16
Al Kahrabaa
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Al Kahrabaa
1.03

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Al Kahrabaa
1.26

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Al Kahrabaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
66%
Al Karkh or Al Kahrabaa
71%
Draw or Al Kahrabaa
62%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
16%
Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
69%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
32%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
11%
Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
66%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
29%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
53%
Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.03 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Karkh scores more
38%
level
29%
Al Kahrabaa scores more
34%

Al Karkh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Jaafar Kathem
17'
Polegar
39'
Mahmoud Khalil
45'
D. Talla
51'
Caio Acarau
72'
D. Diémé
80'
M. Shafiu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Karkh vs Al Kahrabaa

Al Karkh and Al Kahrabaa drew 3-3 in Iraqi League on June 18, 2024.

Goals: Jaafar Kathem (7'), Polegar (17'), Mahmoud Khalil (39'), D. Talla (45'), D. Diémé (72'), M. Shafiu (80').

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Bagdad.