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Al Kahrabaa vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2021

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
Nihad Mohammed 59'
M. Soueid 45'
2/18/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 21Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Al Kahrabaa38%
×Draw29%
Al Karkh33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
1.13
Al Karkh
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.18
Al Karkh
1.02

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.06
Al Karkh
1.07

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
67%
Al Kahrabaa or Al Karkh
71%
Draw or Al Karkh
62%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
15%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
68%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
31%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
11%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
65%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
28%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
53%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.06 · 108 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.18 + Al Karkh defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Al Karkh attack 1.02 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
38%
level
29%
Al Karkh scores more
33%

Al Kahrabaa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
M. Soueid
59'
Nihad Mohammed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Kahrabaa 2–0 Al Karkh

Al Kahrabaa beat Al Karkh 2-0 in Iraqi League on February 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Soueid (45'), Nihad Mohammed (59').

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Baghdād.