Al Kahrabaa 2–2 Erbil: Result & Stats

Al Kahrabaa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Erbil

1/30/2021

Iraqi League · Round 16Al Taji Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Al Kahrabaa39%

×Draw28%

Erbil32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al KahrabaaExpected goals in this matchErbil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.09

Al Kahrabaa

1.23

Erbil

1.09

Al Kahrabaa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

1.17

creates per match

1.11

1.07

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa

1.17

Erbil

1.11

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa

1.07

Erbil

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Erbil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw

68%

Al Kahrabaa or Erbil

72%

Draw or Erbil

61%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+

17%

Erbil wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals

71%

Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals

35%

Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals

13%

Erbil 1+ goals

66%

Erbil 2+ goals

30%

Erbil 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)

55%

Erbil (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.17 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Erbil attack 1.11 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more

39%

level

28%

Erbil scores more

32%

Al Kahrabaa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Kahrabaa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff