Al Jazira Al Hamra 1–1 Al-Dhafra: Result & Stats

Al Jazira Al Hamra

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Dhafra

9/9/2023

Division 1 · Round 1Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra32%

×Draw24%

Al-Dhafra44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Jazira Al HamraExpected goals in this matchAl-Dhafra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.69

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.42

Al-Dhafra

1.69

Al-Dhafra creates 19% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 30 away

1.66

creates per match

1.63

1.76

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.66

Al-Dhafra

1.63

allows per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.76

Al-Dhafra

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira Al Hamra ↓

Al-Dhafra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Jazira Al Hamra or draw

56%

Al Jazira Al Hamra or Al-Dhafra

76%

Draw or Al-Dhafra

68%

Winning margin

Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+

15%

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals

76%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals

41%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals

17%

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals

82%

Al-Dhafra 2+ goals

50%

Al-Dhafra 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)

42%

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira Al Hamra at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.76 · 74 matches

Al-Dhafra away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.66 + Al-Dhafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Al-Dhafra attack 1.63 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more

32%

level

24%

Al-Dhafra scores more

44%

Al-Dhafra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff