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Al-Dhafra vs Al Jazira Al Hamra — Division 1 2018

Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Jazira Al Hamra
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1/26/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 18Al Dhafra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Al-Dhafra56%
×Draw22%
Al Jazira Al Hamra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Dhafra
1.96
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.15

Al-Dhafra creates 70% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 73 away

creates per match

Al-Dhafra
1.87
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.32

allows per match

Al-Dhafra
0.97
Al Jazira Al Hamra
2.04

finishing

Al-Dhafra+0.00on par
Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Dhafra ↓

Al Jazira Al Hamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Al-Dhafra or draw
78%
Al-Dhafra or Al Jazira Al Hamra
78%
Draw or Al Jazira Al Hamra
44%

Winning margin

Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
33%
Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
86%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
58%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
31%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals
68%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals
32%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
72%
Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Dhafra at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Dhafra attack 1.87 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.96

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.32 + Al-Dhafra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Dhafra scores more
56%
level
22%
Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more
22%

Al-Dhafra at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Dhafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Dhafra vs Al Jazira Al Hamra

Al-Dhafra and Al Jazira Al Hamra drew 2-2 in Division 1 on January 26, 2024.

The match was played at Al Dhafra Stadium in Madinat Zaid.