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Al Jandal vs Al Arabi SC — Division 1 2018

Al Jandal
Al Jandal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al Arabi SC
Al Arabi SC
9/1/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 3Al-Oruba Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Jandal39%
×Draw27%
Al Arabi SC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Jandal
1.33
Al Arabi SC
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Al Jandal
1.06
Al Arabi SC
1.18

allows per match

Al Jandal
1.29
Al Arabi SC
1.59

finishing

Al Jandal+0.00on par
Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jandal ↓

Al Arabi SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Jandal or draw
66%
Al Jandal or Al Arabi SC
73%
Draw or Al Arabi SC
61%

Winning margin

Al Jandal wins by 2+
18%
Al Arabi SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Jandal 1+ goals
74%
Al Jandal 2+ goals
38%
Al Jandal 3+ goals
15%
Al Arabi SC 1+ goals
71%
Al Arabi SC 2+ goals
35%
Al Arabi SC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Jandal (draw refunded)
53%
Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jandal at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Al Arabi SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.59 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jandal attack 1.06 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Arabi SC attack 1.18 + Al Jandal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Jandal scores more
39%
level
27%
Al Arabi SC scores more
34%

Al Jandal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Jandal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Jandal vs Al Arabi SC

Al Arabi SC beat Al Jandal 2-1 in Division 1 on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Oruba Club Stadium in Al Jawf.