Al Arabi SC 0–2 Al Jandal: Result & Stats

Al Arabi SC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al Jandal

2/5/2025

Division 1 · Round 20Department of Education Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Arabi SC47%

×Draw25%

Al Jandal28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Arabi SCExpected goals in this matchAl Jandal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.20

Al Arabi SC

1.61

Al Jandal

1.20

Al Arabi SC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

1.51

creates per match

0.96

1.44

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Al Arabi SC

1.51

Al Jandal

0.96

allows per match

Al Arabi SC

1.44

Al Jandal

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Arabi SC+0.00on par

Al Jandal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Arabi SC ↓

Al Jandal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al Arabi SC or draw

72%

Al Arabi SC or Al Jandal

75%

Draw or Al Jandal

53%

Winning margin

Al Arabi SC wins by 2+

24%

Al Jandal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Arabi SC 1+ goals

80%

Al Arabi SC 2+ goals

48%

Al Arabi SC 3+ goals

22%

Al Jandal 1+ goals

70%

Al Jandal 2+ goals

34%

Al Jandal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Arabi SC (draw refunded)

62%

Al Jandal (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Arabi SC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

Al Jandal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Arabi SC attack 1.51 + Al Jandal defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Al Jandal attack 0.96 + Al Arabi SC defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Arabi SC scores more

47%

level

25%

Al Jandal scores more

28%

Al Arabi SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Arabi SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff