Al Ittihad 1–2 Petrojet: Result & Stats

Al Ittihad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Petrojet

M. Alaa 84'

B. Moussa 64'

G. Chukwudi 9'

5/4/2026

Premier League · Relegation Group - 8Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Al Ittihad37%

×Draw30%

Petrojet33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al IttihadExpected goals in this matchPetrojet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.01

Al Ittihad

1.10

Petrojet

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.27

creates per match

1.28

0.74

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Al Ittihad

1.27

Petrojet

1.28

allows per match

Al Ittihad

0.74

Petrojet

0.94

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Al Ittihad+0.40scores more

Petrojet+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ittihad ↓

Petrojet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Ittihad or draw

67%

Al Ittihad or Petrojet

70%

Draw or Petrojet

63%

Winning margin

Al Ittihad wins by 2+

15%

Petrojet wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Ittihad 1+ goals

67%

Al Ittihad 2+ goals

30%

Al Ittihad 3+ goals

10%

Petrojet 1+ goals

64%

Petrojet 2+ goals

27%

Petrojet 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Ittihad (draw refunded)

53%

Petrojet (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ittihad at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.74 · 6 matches

Petrojet away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ittihad attack 1.27 + Petrojet defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Petrojet attack 1.28 + Al Ittihad defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Ittihad scores more

37%

level

30%

Petrojet scores more

33%

Al Ittihad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Ittihad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Alaa

Al Ittihad · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

G. Chukwudi↳ A. Bah

41'

Ahmed EidCard reviewed

45+3'

Amadou Bah

56'

M. Ibrahim← A. Bah

56'

R. Ahmed← M. El Gamal

59'

Y. Wahid← A. Eid

59'

J. Ebuka← F. Farid

64'

B. Moussa

67'

M. Tony← A. Magdi

67'

Mabululu← M. Dunga

72'

A. Yassin← A. Hamed

84'

M. Alaa↳ M. Tony

89'

S. Mohamed← B. Moussa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlPetrojet

Overview

64%Possession36%

22Total Shots10

2.07Expected Goals (xG)0.54

9Corners1

6Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots10

7On Target5

12Off Target4

3Blocked1

15Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

502Total Passes292

386Accurate Passes165

77%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

0.62Goals Prevented0.62

Discipline

6Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1