Al-Ittihad FC 1–2 Dhamk: Result & Stats

Al-Ittihad FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Dhamk

2/10/2020

Pro League · Round 18King Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Al-Ittihad FC47%

×Draw24%

Dhamk29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Ittihad FCExpected goals in this matchDhamk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.29

Al-Ittihad FC

1.70

Dhamk

1.29

Al-Ittihad FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.96

creates per match

0.79

1.79

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.96

Dhamk

0.79

allows per match

Al-Ittihad FC

1.79

Dhamk

1.44

+0.04on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Al-Ittihad FC+0.04on par

Dhamk+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ittihad FC ↓

Dhamk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Ittihad FC or draw

71%

Al-Ittihad FC or Dhamk

76%

Draw or Dhamk

53%

Winning margin

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

25%

Dhamk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

82%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

51%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

24%

Dhamk 1+ goals

72%

Dhamk 2+ goals

37%

Dhamk 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

62%

Dhamk (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ittihad FC at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.79 · 5 matches

Dhamk away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.44 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.96 + Dhamk defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.70

Dhamk attack 0.79 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

47%

level

24%

Dhamk scores more

29%

Al-Ittihad FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Ittihad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff